Secrets of day Trading Methods

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

FTSE Trading Report - 30 November 2011

Yesterday we discussed a key area at 5347 and requirement for the FTSE to fail between 5347 and 5360. At this stage we have seen a reaction back below and it remains the case that whilst we trade below this level, selling is preferable.  If the market does trade above 5347 at this stage then I will have to change my view. 

Today we do have a magnet but we look set to open below a risk area at 5297.  If the market cannot make progress above this level shortly after the open then further selling is indicated.


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Tuesday, November 29, 2011

FTSE Trading Report - 29 November 2011

A decent rally yesterday has the FTSE approaching its MA 20 and MA 50 which are located near 5360 on the daily chart.  We discussed this is an area where the FTSE would want to pull back to after over sold conditions. After large sell offs and rallies, markets like to trade back to these regions. 5360 is also a previous area of resistance/support which we have used in previous months. So we have confluence around this region.  For now whilst the FTSE trades below this level the index is bearish and target lower prices. If we trade above here then the index will turn short term bullish.

As its dividend Tuesday we may have a strong open and there is a previous gap which the index will be attracted to. 


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SURVIVING DAY TRADING

SURVIVING DAY TRADING* TIP 11 from MarkAustinTrading.com

Dear Mark,

I have recently been approached by Harriman House, a well known publisher, to contribute to a new book covering the 10 essential rules of investing. The book will focus on various specialised fields within this industry. My chosen subject will be ''day trading''. The book is due to be released, in early 2012 and at this stage I would like to share with you my top 10 essential rules for day trading.

SURVIVING DAY TRADING - TRADING TIP NO.11

10 insights from a professional trader on how to profit and make a living out of day trading.

Survival Guide

1. PREPARATION IS KEY

Do all your preparation before the market opens and avoid unplanned trades. They will not lead to success in the long run. Discipline is vital in this profession. You can't control the market but you can control yourself. The worst event that can occur to a new trader is winning from an unplanned trade. The reason being that he/she will be more likely to hang onto a bad trade in the future in the hope that this trade will also turn into a winner. We all know where this leads and it's usually to an account with a balance of zero. The after effects also give way to all kinds of psychological problems such as fear and lack of confidence, so traders avoid at your peril!

2. THE GAP

Understand that trading the gap is the most reliable day trading strategy there is. This is the bread and butter trade for most professional traders.

3. YOUR MARKET HAS ITS OWN PERSONALITY

Know your market's personality and its internal dynamics. There is more to trading than just indicators
and bar charts. Each market will have unique behavioral patterns, which can be exploited over and over again.

4. TURN YOUR ATTENTION TO THE MARKET AND NOT YOU P&L ACCOUNT

When trading, focus on your chart price and not your profit and loss account. If you have done your preparation there should be no need to focus on what profit or loss has been made whilst the trade is active. Your stop is a pre-determined level of risk so let it do its job and your exit target is not based on how much profit the trade is currently earning you. Applying this concept will reduce common emotional problems such as cutting profits too early and allowing a loss to run.

5. QUALITY NOT QUANTITY

Being a day trader doesn't mean you have to place multiple trades every day. It's a common misconception that large quantities of trades have to be placed in order to succeed in day trading. Over trading is just a byproduct of greed and impatience. If there is no set up for the day, which meets your criteria, take the day off. A day trader only needs 2-3 good trades a week to make a healthy living out of this profession.

6. 1ST OF THE MONTH - NOT A DAY TO BE A BEAR

Avoid selling stock indices on the 1st of the month. These days have a bias to the upside and large funds often commit new cash monies on these days.

7. PERSERVERNACE - FORTUNES DO NOT COME TO THOSE WHO GIVE UP

If you are placing a trade from a strategic position with a tight stop accept that it may take a few attempts to successfully climb on board a winning trade. Taking a few small loses should not be an issue in day trading and in the long term strengthens your mind and protects your capital from further loses.

8. SIMPLE

Simple is better. Your core system/strategy should be as simple as possible. In my experience the more complicated a system , the less chance of success. This will allow you to apply some discretion to your trading -so you can adapt to changing market conditions.

9. NEWS

Large news events often produce the worst bull and bear traps in the market. Recognise major news releases but accept it's impossible to predict how the market will react to the news.

10. LARGE EGOS HAVE NO PLACE IN TRADING

Avoid looking for that one big move. Too many traders obsess with trying to catch that one big move and the majority fail miserably. Largely this is down to ego. In reality the markets trend only 20% of the time and for 80% of the time they are range bound. Develop strategies that can profit from these conditions. Overtime, consistent profits will stack up.

All the best,

Mark

My website is www.markaustintrading.com

Mark Austin Trading is now established as one of the UK's premium FTSE trading services and here's here's what one of our members has to say-

"Not a bad day all in all after a difficult start - bagged two binaries one in the morning and then one in the afternoon session - and made a good profit with the opportunities that developed - I must say that the learning curve of information you e-mail to me as a subscriber is invaluable and I look at and study each message and compare it with the chart on my monitor - and watch it develop into something that seems quite amazing to me as everything unfolds on the monitor as you suggested - and through the course of the day I watch and listen to your 'you tube' lessons and take in as much as I can - I'm not saying I remember it all - the knowledge that you give we the subscribers is fantastic and is much appreciated."
Steve

Monday, November 28, 2011

FTSE Trading Report - 28 November 2011

We discussed short covering on our Friday report and we saw this come into play in the afternoon session. We now have a big gap up.  The market is recovering a from a over sold position and will be attracted towards its 20 and 50 moving averages on the daily charts (5350).


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Friday, November 25, 2011

FTSE Trading Report - 25 November 2011

Its a Friday and its the day after Thanksgiving in the US. Markets can behave irrationally after holiday periods so bare this in mind if you are trading today.  Traditionally the day after thanksgiving is bullish for world markets (also the week after) and we are well overdue an up day but that doesn't mean the markets have to rise immediately. The markets are always right and its important as traders that we never marry into an opinion when analysing the markets and ignore stops. The trend is firmly down so we have to respect that buying this market is still very risky even though the probabilities of a rebound are increasing.


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Thursday, November 24, 2011

FTSE Trading Report - 24 November 2011

The US markets are shut today for Thanksgiving so expect a quiet session for the FTSE this afternoon.  Most traders write off such days however just like the Christmas period if there is a range which develops the price action is usually smooth (with volatility removed) making trading easier.

The trend is firmly down and ideally we would like to sell however we will have to be patient. Now is not the time to sell. The market could well fall further but we have to focus on the probabilities and facts.  The odds of a bounce higher have increased.  

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Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Mark FTSE Report - 23 November 2011

The FTSE closed under 5150 yesterday so the market will target 5000. However have we have seen 8 consecutive lower closes on the FTSE. This is well above average so we can now expect a 'dead cat' bounce. I do expect to see the FTSE close yesterdays gap over the next 24 hours.


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Tuesday, November 22, 2011

FTSE Trading Report - 22 November 2011

The negative signal from a break of 5350 gave way to more selling yesterday. Another close below this level today and we have moved from a sideways pattern to a downward pattern. If observed, any rallies instigated from the festive ''thanksgiving'' would then be an opportunity to sell.  The target will be at least 5000. The stop for any rallies would be an end of day close above 5500. 


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Monday, November 21, 2011

FTSE Trading Report - 21 November 2011

The market penetrated 5350 on Friday which was a short term sell signal. If we had closed the week below this figure then this would have been a medium term sell negative signal (i.e stronger).

One thing we have to be aware of this week is ''thanksgiving'' in the US. This week has a bullish bias (historically), particularly the day following the holiday (so Friday).  My focus this week will be on day trading rather than positional trading to avoid another bear trap in this market. I expect there to be good opportunities (for day trading) this week with volatility on the rise. I have been very cautious on positional trading over the last few months and for good reason. We have seen an above average number of false signals to the up side and the downside (on US and European markets) which has cost traders dearly. For now, with volatility still high, the environment still favours short term strategies.


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Friday, November 18, 2011

FTSE Trading Report - 18 November 2011

Its all about 5350 today. If we break below this level during trading hours (8am - 4.30pm) then the trend will reverse and we will be looking for selling opportunities. Like wise if we can hold we could see a powerful rally come in.

The magnet has been hit already as per my previous report. There was 2 points of risk if you went for that when I sent the report. Its worth running half with your stop at entry.


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Thursday, November 17, 2011

FTSE Trading Report - 17 November 2011

Global markets continue to consolidate with a break out due very shortly.  I am looking at the FTSE breaking out over the next few days. 

In the meantime a consolidating market means the majority of its closing gaps (the prior days closing level) get filled (reached). 
 

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Tuesday, November 15, 2011

FTSE Trading Report - 15 November 2011

Yesterday we saw some selling but it was not a sharp decline.  In bear markets when the markets hit major resistance (5600) any declines should start off with force if the move is to develop into a large wave down.  If we do not see strong selling come in today then the chances are we are just consolidating before moving higher towards year end.  As we discussed yesterday the markets have a historical tendency to rise towards to end of the year.  So today will provide some clues as to the next move. I will also be watching the S&P and the key number at 1257.  2 x end of day closes above this level is bullish and if the Christmas rally does materialise it will most likely be the Americans leading the way.


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Monday, November 14, 2011

Key points for a Christmas rally

If there is to be a Christmas rally, its the US which will be the catalyst and drag the FTSE up.  Why?  The S&P closed over 1257 on Friday. 1257 was the opening price for 2012 and whilst we trade above here its bullish.   The period leading up to thanks giving is also traditionally bullish.

Institutions are more focused on their own performance for the last quarter rather than Europe and will enter the market in fear they will miss a rally (opportunity).

We have the US presidential election next year and you often see rallies develop in ''hope'' of positive economic change. Remember the stock markets price information in 6-9 months ahead of the actual events

All the bad news is out! Albeit there is large cloud of uncertainty looming over the stock markets and there is always the risk of the European crisis deteriorating further.

So the above are some factors which we need to consider and although the current pattern is bearish we need to stay nimble in this market.  For now I am trading what I see but its important we stay flexible in this market and not marry the up side or the downside whilst so much uncertainty and volatility remains. When stock markets are this uncertain they should fall but markets don't also behave as they should.

FTSE Trading Report - 14 November 2011

The FTSE and American markets closed on the week's high on Friday which is a positive signal.  If the markets are indeed to see a substantial decline over the coming weeks, I would expect to see a decent reversal today/tomorrow, otherwise we could see the start of the Christmas rally which traditionally starts around now.

Its difficult to imagine a strong rally with all the uncertainty surrounding Europe but there is a few key points which would support such a case.


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Friday, November 11, 2011

FTSE Trading Report - 11 November 2011

After yesterday's snap back rally my analysis and view on the market remains the same.  

The present volatility reflects a very uncertain market and any traders who do buy stocks will find it hard to hold on to them for long.  For now the strategy will be to sell any rallies.  The case for further downside towards 5000 remains intact whilst the market trades below 5600.


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Thursday, November 10, 2011

FTSE Trading Report - 10 November 2011

The market couldn't hold 5600 just after the open yesterday and that counted as yet another false break above key resistance at 5600. We had discussed on Tuesday that if we saw another false break above 5600 we would likely see the market drop towards 5300 for the rest of the week.  Will we drop further?

Unless we see any spectacular news comes out on Europe which at present looks unlikely (given the the list of European countries approaching default keeps rising) this could be the start of the next leg down of this bear market.


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Wednesday, November 9, 2011

FTSE Trading Report - 9 November 2011

Today is all about 5600 and whether the market can hold this level.  Yesterday the market made another false break above here and then fell away. Today we are set to open above this level.  If the market can hold this level over the first 10 minutes of trading this is a bullish sign for the short term and we could see one final rally today/tomorrow. 

The magnet has already been reached today.


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Tuesday, November 8, 2011

FTSE Trading Report - 8 November 2011

No real change on yesterday's report and whilst we trade below 5600 the market targets 5300. I did mention yesterday that we had conflicting signals and this remains the case today however I don't expect this to continue much longer.  Its not ideal but to have a 75% win rate on our magnet trades we have to be selective.

As Tuesdays are generally bullish days we could see a rally towards 5590.  If the market rejects 5600 again, then the chances are we are going to decline towards 5300 for the rest of the week.

Today the dividend is 1.5. 


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Monday, November 7, 2011

FTSE Trading Report - 7 November 2011

Friday saw a failed break just above 5600 which is a short term negative signal however we have to be aware that we have been treated to several bull and bear traps over recent weeks partly down to the Greek saga. The market is extremely uncertain at present with the EU bail out plan and what we are seeing is sharp reactions to any short term news coming out on Greece. This is making swing trading difficult and until a clear established trend is formed I will continue to focus on low risk, short term set ups.


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Friday, November 4, 2011

FTSE Trading Report - 4 November 2011

Its Non farm payrolls today so the tunnel system will be an option today if we can sell the 100/100 tunnel at 80 or higher.

The magnet is on and I also expect the close to be visited this morning.


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Thursday, November 3, 2011

FTSE Trading Report - 03 November 2011

We had an inside day yesterday (we traded within Tuesday's daily range) which could well develop into a break out from either 5544 or 5338 today.  The wave count suggests we will see lower prices however I am still mindful of the gap which is going to draw the market in.


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Tuesday, November 1, 2011

FTSE Trading Report - 01 November 2011

The FTSE took a large turn around yesterday with bad news coming out of Greece.  We were expected one final rally higher to position short however the Greek issue was the catalyst to spark the decline earlier.  When market become very over bought and there is a high probability of a sell off final patterns can fail to complete (in this case the 5th wave).


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