Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 29 July 2011

No real change on yesterdays report and we still require a break through 5795 to signal a decline to 5700. If 5795 continues to hold during cash hours then the market remains positive with a target at 6000.  Out of hour moves below 5795 do not count.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 28 July 2011

This morning I attach a chart showing the final formation of wave E.  We saw a reversal point at 5752 last week which we positioned long for on the premise that wave E had completed.  If the FTSE falls below 5795 during cash hours then its likely wave E will instead complete nearer to 5700. We will know at the open. This is the alternate count and one which I have been wary of and is the reason we have not entered into any swing trades this week and instead just the tunnels. Far better to wait for a clearer pattern.  Of course the debt news has also been a concern as when these scenarios arise the market likes to shake as many traders out of positions as possible.  I continue to expect wild swings this week with many amateur traders getting stopped out on an attempt to try and second guess the outcome of the news.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 27 July 2011

The FTSE continues to drift in a tight range whilst investors remain very cautious ahead of the debt saga. Who can blame them given the economic importance.

For now we can only play the range between 5880-5966 and this is ideal for short term scalpers.  5880 is the MA 200 and a level which will serve as strong support and 5966 is the high for the market which was reached before uncertainty over the debt deal crept in.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 26 July 2011

Markets are bouncing around in a tight range which reflects the uncertainty over this debt deal.

The FTSE has now formed a nice base between 5880-5900 with a series of price spikes and the market remains bullish as long as we do not make a clear break through the Moving Average 200 which now stands at 5880.

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Update* Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 25 July 2011

Its going to be a volatile week judging by the open and we may see some wild swings until the US debt deal is agreed. The deadline is the 2nd August and we should see an agreement before then. Hopefully this week.  Until then the market may use this is an opportunity to shake out traders with large swings to the upside and downside.   If the deal is not agreed then this would be a major economic blow and a large sell off would prevail.  The probabilities are the debt deal will be agreed so for now any large declines to the downside can be viewed as buying opportunities. 

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 25 July 2011

Uncertainty over the US debt deal has pulled the FTSE down overnight and we have tested the MA 200 currently standing at 5877.  We talked about a buying opportunity in this zone on Friday and this still stands however an open under 5900 is short term bearish so I am not willing to commit to a swing trade just yet and instead use a lower risk trade set up.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 22 July 2011

At this stage 5752 does indeed mark the turning point in this market as we saw an end of day close above the Moving Average 200 at 5875 yesterday which is the signal we wanted to see before taking any further positions in the market.

Coupled with the close above the MA 200, we also saw a positive outside day which is when the FTSE makes a new low and a new high when compared to the previous days trading range and also closes higher.  Very positive action.

 

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 21 July 2011

The FTSE will open strong again today but whether we can see this rally materialise above 5900 remains to be seen.  The MA 200 currently stands at 5875 and from this level and slightly above the FTSE will hit major resistance.

In terms of positioning for the next move I will be observing the reaction to 5875.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 19 July 2011

The FTSE closed yesterday on the day's low and we often see the index have a short rebound when we see this action so we could see some upside today. Its also ''dividend Tuesday'' and these days often support buyers entering the market.

I will point out though that 5752 is key today.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 15 July 2011

Its expiry day for the FTSE but just options today so we won't see much volatility at 10.10 am however large moves often come in after the event has completed.   With the market bouncing up and down between 5800 and 5900 the market is doing its best to shake out trades.  This signifies a large move is on its way.

Expiry often muddles trading signals so my preferred play today is binaries.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 14 July 2011

We had an inside trading day yesterday which indicates we have little directional advantage whilst we trade between 5928 and 5800.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 13 July 2011

The FTSE has declined further than I expected and we have a clear triangle now formed on the 1 hour chart with a break out due.  The overall index remains bearish until we see prices close above 5970 again.

For triangles I always like to use tunnels for this particular chart pattern but with no major news today and also the size of the 2 previous trading days we may consolidate today.

If we do see the break out I would look to trade a retest of the triangles trend line.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 12 July 2011

The service swing trade target has just about been met.  From a correctional point of view the market has done what it needed and pulled back into the 50 moving day average on the daily chart and also retraced 50% of the 5 wave advance (see chart).  An end of day close above 6000 from here would indicate we are going to make fresh highs above 6105 in the next few weeks.  Whilst we remain under 5929 the bears are in control but and I not a seller from current levels.

A few things to take into consideration today

Its a Tuesday and as we are in a overall bull market these are usually positive days however today there is no dividend on the FTSE which is very unusual. Its the dividend element which adds to bullish tone for these trading days.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 11 July 2011

Our analysis pointed to a 5 wave pattern on the FTSE last week which we projected to complete between 6080 - 6120.  Friday's high came in at 6084 just before the non farm payrolls so at this stage we can assume the pattern has completed and a decline to 5850 is under way.

To add to the wave count we also saw a negative outside day on Friday  - The FTSE made a new high but then closed lower than the previous day's low and below 6000.  

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A BRAND NEW GOLD SERVICE

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 8 July 2011

No real change on yesterdays analysis so just a few points to run through this morning.

The FTSE is currently trading at 6078 so 27 points from making new highs this year and we are in the final wave up (wave 5) which has either completed or near completion.  A false break cannot be ruled out to clear all the stops and this could occur at 1.30pm with the jobs report release but its unlikely the FTSE would have power to make a sustainable break above 6105 given the extended rise we have seen already. Wave 5 is likely to end either today or on Monday. From here expect a decline to 5850.

No Magnet trade today

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 7 July 2011

A down day yesterday which wasn't too surprising since we had seen 7 positive days in a row for the FTSE but the index did manage to just sneak in an end of day close above 6000.  This keeps the market bullish in the short term and further downside can only be expected if we see an end of day close below this level.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 6 July 2011

No real change on yesterdays report. The market is consolidating as expected and volume has dropped off considerably.  Buyers are clearly not comfortable buying at these levels and we wait until traders who thought the correction down to 5643 was the start of a bear market to be ''squeezed'' out of long term short positions. 

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Anyone for my latest FTSE pips?

Dear Trader,

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All the best,

Mark

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 5 July 2011

We saw acceptance above 6000 yesterday and a close above this level strengthens this market even more.  

We await patiently for a short term correction to position long but we cannot be certain this will come immediately. Instead we could see a consolidation period between 5990-6035 for a few more trading sessions. I say this as there will be many traders waiting for this this market to correct now and the longer the market creeps higher the more impatient they will become and eventually close out. It will be at this stage the market will decline and we will use this opportunity to position long.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 4 July 2011

With the FTSE rising over 5% in a few days we would expect a negative reaction at 6000 however the decline may not be deep as some might expect.  Often when markets make a clear turning point and start trending it is difficult to climb on board and traders make the mistake of trying to pick tops and go short on over bought conditions.  If sentiment is very positive then markets will ignore indicators. This is what we are seeing now.  We therefore want to try and go long when we see a retracement.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 1 July 2011

Another surge in markets yesterday left the FTSE closing on the day's high at 5945. A very bullish sign.

We are overbought on the short term but this could still head higher today. I say that as its the 1st of a new month and because of the bullish close. Its unwise to try and pick a top at present unless you are using very tight risk parameters.

The magnet was activated yesterday as we passed through 5910.  I expect this to be reached in the next few trading sessions however given the powerful nature of this rally I would prefer to use this target as a level to go long.  With American market shut on Monday we could well see the FTSE have a short term correction to relieve over bought conditions.

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