We finished Friday's session with the FTSE producing a negative outside week. A new high was made and the index closed lower than the previous week. This is usually a strong sell signal however there are few other price action factors to bear in mind :
1) The index has already tested its lower trend line and major support at 5870 (and bounced on strong volume)
2) We filled a previous closing gap just under 5860
3) We closed Friday's session back over the 50 day day moving average and 6000
4) We are still in a bull market
Taking these points into account we have a sell signal but it is very weak. We cannot conclude a top has been formed until we see an end of day close below 5820.
In the very short term whilst we await patiently for a clear trend to develop (for longer term trades) we will have to contend with sideways action.
When I met Mark I was enormously impressed with his FTSE trading abilities, so much so that I decided to recommend him to my clients. John Piper
Secrets of day Trading Methods
Get immediate access to the 'Secrets of Marks Day Trading Methods' today!
Market Trading Can Be Challenging -
Find Out How Mark Can Assist You.
The secret techniques of professional traders! Key strategies, Winning Mind set and Much Much more!
You'll also start receiving my daily Market Review
e-letter for free as well. All you need to do to is pop your name and email address into the box below.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Friday, February 25, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 25 Feb 2011
Good morning
With the FTSE making a new high this week and falling away sharply the index will create a negative sell signal on the weekly charts if we close today's session under 6023. For cautious positional traders this should be the sell signal to look out for.
We have major GDP news out in the US today at 1.30pm so we could have a volatile session on our hands.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 24 Feb 2011
Good morning
We closed under the 50 moving day average yesterday and under a break out support level at 5970. This indicates continued weakness for the FTSE 100.
We are currently resting on the weekly chart trend line so its possible we could have a brief reaction to the upside but I expect an established break of 5900 shortly. Target 5840.
Resistance for any counter trend rallies lies at 5950. A good shorting opportunity.
Major support lies at 5820. If we penetrate this level we can confirm 6105 is a medium term top in the market and we will most likely test the MA 200 at 5670. A common occurrence for corrections in bull markets.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 23 Feb 2011
Good morning
A volatile day for the FTSE yesterday with key support (5970) being broken to the downside but buyers erased most of this activity in the afternoon. The VIX (a measure of volatility) was off the scale.
We failed to close the day under key support at 5970. A close below this level would have been very bearish. As we are still in a bull market under usual circumstances I would most likely be treating yesterday's sharp move down as no more than a bear trap to shake out too many traders long in this market.
A volatile day for the FTSE yesterday with key support (5970) being broken to the downside but buyers erased most of this activity in the afternoon. The VIX (a measure of volatility) was off the scale.
We failed to close the day under key support at 5970. A close below this level would have been very bearish. As we are still in a bull market under usual circumstances I would most likely be treating yesterday's sharp move down as no more than a bear trap to shake out too many traders long in this market.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 22 Feb 2011
Good morning
We had the negative outside day yesterday which has created sell pressure under 6000. As mentioned yesterday we also had a close under 6020 (support) , a false break above 6100 and this is all timed around options expiry which as we discussed last week are often pivotal events.
However until we have a break below 5970 (during market hours) we cannot jump the gun. A move below this figure will open up 5900 quickly. We are close now (current market 5978) but I need to see this during cash hours to confirm the trend has turned down.
We had the negative outside day yesterday which has created sell pressure under 6000. As mentioned yesterday we also had a close under 6020 (support) , a false break above 6100 and this is all timed around options expiry which as we discussed last week are often pivotal events.
However until we have a break below 5970 (during market hours) we cannot jump the gun. A move below this figure will open up 5900 quickly. We are close now (current market 5978) but I need to see this during cash hours to confirm the trend has turned down.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Service Update - 21 Feb 2011
Good morning
The FTSE closed last week on a positive note. After an initial sell off in the morning session, buyers came in late afternoon and prices closed higher than the previous week. When a market is tiring and sellers are becoming dominant traders are unwilling to hold positions over the weekend. This is not the case at present and calls for higher prices. The stop for all bulls remains a close below 5980. Until we see price action close below this level we can expect higher prices in the short term.
With US markets closed for Presidents day expect a very quite session this afternoon.
The FTSE closed last week on a positive note. After an initial sell off in the morning session, buyers came in late afternoon and prices closed higher than the previous week. When a market is tiring and sellers are becoming dominant traders are unwilling to hold positions over the weekend. This is not the case at present and calls for higher prices. The stop for all bulls remains a close below 5980. Until we see price action close below this level we can expect higher prices in the short term.
With US markets closed for Presidents day expect a very quite session this afternoon.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 18 Feb 2011
Good morning
Its options expiry today and the activity after this event can be pivotal. With the FTSE trading in a tight range for most of this week I expect a large move either today or early next week.
Expiry takes place just after 10am.
For the bulls a weekly close above 6100 is what they are looking for. The clear stop for them is a close below the 20 day moving average at 5980.
Its options expiry today and the activity after this event can be pivotal. With the FTSE trading in a tight range for most of this week I expect a large move either today or early next week.
Expiry takes place just after 10am.
For the bulls a weekly close above 6100 is what they are looking for. The clear stop for them is a close below the 20 day moving average at 5980.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 17 Feb 2011
Good morning
6055 is the key number this week and we can see the FTSE is reacting to this level with conviction. I mentioned yesterday an upward break through 6055 yesterday would call for higher prices and we have reacted once again to the ceiling of this market. The FTSE has tested the 6090 region 4 times now. Generally the more times a support or resistance level is tested the higher the chance of the market penetrating this level. For this reason I expect higher prices above 6100.
With options expiry tomorrow we may have a quiet session today. If this is the case I expect the market to finally show its hand tomorrow and we could have quite a large move.
6055 is the key number this week and we can see the FTSE is reacting to this level with conviction. I mentioned yesterday an upward break through 6055 yesterday would call for higher prices and we have reacted once again to the ceiling of this market. The FTSE has tested the 6090 region 4 times now. Generally the more times a support or resistance level is tested the higher the chance of the market penetrating this level. For this reason I expect higher prices above 6100.
With options expiry tomorrow we may have a quiet session today. If this is the case I expect the market to finally show its hand tomorrow and we could have quite a large move.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 15 Feb 2011
Good morning
The FTSE flirted with support at 6055 yesterday but failed to close below this level. The current market is clearly very indecisive especially given yesterday's daily candle bar close and we have seen no clear trend continuation for sometime now.
Whilst the FTSE avoids an end of day close below its 20 day moving average at 5976 we cannot assume higher prices are not on cards. In fact for any bulls wanting to go long this should be your stop reference.
Elliot wave calls for a move to 5900 but we need price action to come in line. This fits well with American markets due a correction. The best signals are when price action and Elliott wave theory compliment each other. This is clearly not the case at present. Once we see this I can start recommending swing trades again.
Given the market conditions we should concentrate on short term signals to enter us into day trades.
The FTSE flirted with support at 6055 yesterday but failed to close below this level. The current market is clearly very indecisive especially given yesterday's daily candle bar close and we have seen no clear trend continuation for sometime now.
Whilst the FTSE avoids an end of day close below its 20 day moving average at 5976 we cannot assume higher prices are not on cards. In fact for any bulls wanting to go long this should be your stop reference.
Elliot wave calls for a move to 5900 but we need price action to come in line. This fits well with American markets due a correction. The best signals are when price action and Elliott wave theory compliment each other. This is clearly not the case at present. Once we see this I can start recommending swing trades again.
Given the market conditions we should concentrate on short term signals to enter us into day trades.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 14 Feb 2011
Good morning
From a price action perspective the outlook for the FTSE looks very positive. The index failed to gain acceptance under 6000, we had a positive outside day on Friday (the market made a new low and new high when compared to the previous day but closed higher) we closed over major resistance (6055) and the weekly chart closed in a strong position.
From an Elliott wave perspective we are currently in an ABC correction. The A wave completed at 5970 and we are currently in the B up. This would allow for a top over 6100 before a final decline to 5900. This would tie in with the American markets completing a major wave count and currently making new highs. We have expiry at the end of the week so its possible this could be a turning point.
Whilst we wait for signals that a top is in place we do not want to be positioning short until price is accepted under 6055. Especially given the positive price action we are seeing.
From a price action perspective the outlook for the FTSE looks very positive. The index failed to gain acceptance under 6000, we had a positive outside day on Friday (the market made a new low and new high when compared to the previous day but closed higher) we closed over major resistance (6055) and the weekly chart closed in a strong position.
From an Elliott wave perspective we are currently in an ABC correction. The A wave completed at 5970 and we are currently in the B up. This would allow for a top over 6100 before a final decline to 5900. This would tie in with the American markets completing a major wave count and currently making new highs. We have expiry at the end of the week so its possible this could be a turning point.
Whilst we wait for signals that a top is in place we do not want to be positioning short until price is accepted under 6055. Especially given the positive price action we are seeing.
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 9 Feb 2011
Good morning
The FTSE closed yesterday's session on a new yearly high. Positive action for the bulls.
We have clear impulsive action up from 5815 which signals higher prices longer term (possibly 6500) . In the short term we have 5 waves up, bearish divergence on the MACD (see chart) and resistance running from December at 6100, so the odds of a correction coming in shortly are increasing. Target 5900.
The S&P and Dow have also completed major patterns so if these markets turn down they will drag the FTSE as well.
Whilst we await a clear reversal signal we can trade the intra day price action as we see it.
The FTSE closed yesterday's session on a new yearly high. Positive action for the bulls.
We have clear impulsive action up from 5815 which signals higher prices longer term (possibly 6500) . In the short term we have 5 waves up, bearish divergence on the MACD (see chart) and resistance running from December at 6100, so the odds of a correction coming in shortly are increasing. Target 5900.
The S&P and Dow have also completed major patterns so if these markets turn down they will drag the FTSE as well.
Whilst we await a clear reversal signal we can trade the intra day price action as we see it.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 8 Feb 2011
Good morning
The FTSE has met our target at 6055 and futures are currently resting close to this level. We now look for wave 2 down but we need confirmation. I am counting the current move up as a 5th wave of 1. Its possible we could get an extension of the 5th but no further than 6100.
The FTSE has met our target at 6055 and futures are currently resting close to this level. We now look for wave 2 down but we need confirmation. I am counting the current move up as a 5th wave of 1. Its possible we could get an extension of the 5th but no further than 6100.
Monday, February 7, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 7 Feb 2011
Good morning
We have a positive outside week which re-enforces the view that the market has a made a solid medium term low at 5815. A positive outside week is when the FTSE makes a new low when compared to the previous week but closes higher than the previous week. Positive price action.
In the short term I refer to my Elliott count as of last week and we can see we are currently tracing out the 5th wave of wave 1 (see attached). Its possible wave 5 ended on Friday as we had a new high for the week but futures are trading over 6000 again so if we can hold over 6000 in the first hour of trading I would expect the current rally to complete near to 6055. The subsequent wave 2 decline (target 5900 and lower) could open up a nice buying opportunity.
To get access to the complete ftse trading analysis as well as my trading opportunities you can sign up here.
We have a positive outside week which re-enforces the view that the market has a made a solid medium term low at 5815. A positive outside week is when the FTSE makes a new low when compared to the previous week but closes higher than the previous week. Positive price action.
In the short term I refer to my Elliott count as of last week and we can see we are currently tracing out the 5th wave of wave 1 (see attached). Its possible wave 5 ended on Friday as we had a new high for the week but futures are trading over 6000 again so if we can hold over 6000 in the first hour of trading I would expect the current rally to complete near to 6055. The subsequent wave 2 decline (target 5900 and lower) could open up a nice buying opportunity.
To get access to the complete ftse trading analysis as well as my trading opportunities you can sign up here.
Friday, February 4, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 4 Feb 2011
Good morning
Its non farm payrolls today and this news item will be released at 1.30pm. I have attached the strategy for profiting from this.
In reference to yesterday's analysis we can see we had the 4th wave down finding support at 5950 and we are now in the 5th up. Target 6035-55.
If the index holds over 6000 today I would not recommend shorting above this level. I will be looking for a new high followed by a close below 6000 to confirm wave 2 down is underway.
A fresh negative signal is presented on an established break of 5956.
To get access to the complete ftse trading analysis as well as my trading opportunities you can sign up here.
Its non farm payrolls today and this news item will be released at 1.30pm. I have attached the strategy for profiting from this.
In reference to yesterday's analysis we can see we had the 4th wave down finding support at 5950 and we are now in the 5th up. Target 6035-55.
If the index holds over 6000 today I would not recommend shorting above this level. I will be looking for a new high followed by a close below 6000 to confirm wave 2 down is underway.
A fresh negative signal is presented on an established break of 5956.
To get access to the complete ftse trading analysis as well as my trading opportunities you can sign up here.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 3 Feb 2011
Good morning
The FTSE is back into bull mode and the decline to 5813 can be seen as a mere profit taking exercise. The decline was backed by concerns over Egypt. However, in reality the markets were over bought and if it wasn't Egypt it would have been something else to prompt the sell off.
In terms of Elliott Wave Theory we were expecting a final wave down to complete the wave structure and this may have been seen on the futures. Elliott Wave Theory is not an exact science but it can be a very useful projection of where the markets are heading in the medium term. As you know we were calling a sell off to 5820 weeks before this happened.
The FTSE is back into bull mode and the decline to 5813 can be seen as a mere profit taking exercise. The decline was backed by concerns over Egypt. However, in reality the markets were over bought and if it wasn't Egypt it would have been something else to prompt the sell off.
In terms of Elliott Wave Theory we were expecting a final wave down to complete the wave structure and this may have been seen on the futures. Elliott Wave Theory is not an exact science but it can be a very useful projection of where the markets are heading in the medium term. As you know we were calling a sell off to 5820 weeks before this happened.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 2 Feb 2011
Good morning
The FTSE is currently standing in a neutral zone. The index failed to move past 5870 yesterday to create a negative signal and it has closed right on 5957 which as you will remember from last week was the previous break out level leading to a decline to 5813. Acceptance (3 thirty minute candle bars) over 5957 is bullish and the all important close over 6000 will create a fresh buy signal. With America making new highs this is likely but we need confirmation.
The FTSE is currently standing in a neutral zone. The index failed to move past 5870 yesterday to create a negative signal and it has closed right on 5957 which as you will remember from last week was the previous break out level leading to a decline to 5813. Acceptance (3 thirty minute candle bars) over 5957 is bullish and the all important close over 6000 will create a fresh buy signal. With America making new highs this is likely but we need confirmation.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 1 Feb 2011
Good morning
Did we find a floor yesterday just above 5800?
That's the question everyone is asking. I have attached my elliott wave analysis from yesterday which still stands to form. The decline to 5813 yesterday looks like the end of wave 3 of the C wave. Wave 4 up was the rally to my projected target at 5900. 5906 is the 50% fibonacci retracement level. Wave 5 should therefore come in over the next few days creating a retest at 5800 or slightly lower.
To get access to the complete ftse trading analysis as well as my trading opportunities you can sign up here.
Did we find a floor yesterday just above 5800?
That's the question everyone is asking. I have attached my elliott wave analysis from yesterday which still stands to form. The decline to 5813 yesterday looks like the end of wave 3 of the C wave. Wave 4 up was the rally to my projected target at 5900. 5906 is the 50% fibonacci retracement level. Wave 5 should therefore come in over the next few days creating a retest at 5800 or slightly lower.
To get access to the complete ftse trading analysis as well as my trading opportunities you can sign up here.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)