Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 31 August 2011

We saw the upward penetration through 5254 yesterday morning which was an indication we would see short term higher prices and the downside may be restricted to 5208. After reaching this level yesterday we saw the buyers enter and this is now an indication we will see prices climb towards 5350-5400 in the short term as long as the market stays above 5200. 

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 30 August 2011

The FTSE closed at 5129 on Friday and with the bank holiday Monday yesterday the index has been digesting news and we are set to gap up some 145 points higher. 

Last week we were taking advantage of sideways action with a preference to shorting any rallies towards 5070.  The larger wave count still calls for further downside towards 4800 however I would not expect to see prices trade above 5254-5265 this morning if this count is to remain strong.  You will remember this was a previous key level which led to a huge sell off (see chart).  Another thing to take note of is the close tomorrow. A monthly close above 5200 is bullish and if seen we could see higher prices towards 5700. 

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How to join the 5% - Plus a valuable formula* TIP 8

How to join the 5% - Plus a valuable formula* TIP 8 from MarkAustinTrading.com

Dear Trader,

How to join the 5% - Plus a valuable formula

Its no real secret that 5% of the world's population holds most of the wealth and the other 95% struggle to achieve their desired level of wealth accumulation. This statistic applies to many parts of life. Society has led us to believe that those who really succeed are either special, more intelligent or lucky. The fact is the human race is very similar and apart from those who inherit wealth its really only the human mind set which prevents most goals from being achieved.

There are 3 key characteristics of the 5% which separates them from the 95%:

Taking action - We all have good ideas, plans and visions of where we want to end up but very few people actually take any action. The ones who do succeed actually take their thoughts and act on them.

Education - If you want to succeed in anything then you need to put some work in. It only takes one piece of useful information to make a dramatic change to your life . The Internet is littered with quick fix systems and programmes which promise vast quantities of wealth whilst lying by your pool, drinking cocktails. Whilst this is possible with a few businesses (trading being one of them), you still need to put some time into learning and correctly applying the information which you have purchased to get to this stage.

Failure - The 5% do not give up and treat failure as a learning curve where valuable lessons have been learnt. If we look at some of the most successful businessmen e.g Walt Disney, Donald Trump and Henry Heinz. They have all been previously bankrupt. Even John Piper in his early years had a similar experience.

Now if we enter the world of trading then it may come as no surprise that the same statistics apply to this business as well. 5% of traders earn considerable amounts from the markets and the other 95% struggle to achieve their desired goals.

So how do these characteristics fit into trading?

Well Taking Action is rarely the problem. These days opening a trading account is made relatively easy for you and the actual process of trading is straight forward.

Education - If you want to make money in anything then you have to put some time in. If you have access to good information, spend the time to soak it up and use it to your benefit. Did you know that if you spend just 1 hour of your day, each and every day learning a particular profession then after 1 year you will be a specialist in that area!

Failure - Of the three I believe this is the biggest and most challenging hurdle which separates the traders who go on to make considerable amounts of money and those who struggle or eventually give up. For this reason I am now going to spend some time on this key point.

FAILURE

It is programmed into us from a young age that failure is not acceptable and to succeed in life we cannot fail. For this reason when most of us fail at something we give up at the first instance. Now we all know that in trading we have to accept loses and to some this comes as a real challenge as its going against our subconscious belief systems. It did for me certainly. I have quite a competitive personality as it is but when I first started trading, I really did not like taking loses and it was a real challenge to accept this was part of the business (basically a business expense). I did on more than one occasion contemplate quiting trading in my early years. I'm glad I didn't. I still dislike taking a loss but the trades I do take have little risk attached to them so if they do fail then this has little impact on me. Taking lots of small loses actually strengthens the trading mind. Taking a large loss weakens your trading mind.

But how many losses can the human mind actually take? This is an interesting question and I believe this is where most new traders come undone. Its all very well accepting you will take a few small loses in trading but the majority do not understand the probabilities of their system / strategy. If you understand an outcome and or scenario then its far easier to act rationally than emotionally when seen.

1 loss is ok

2 losses you start to feel a bit uncomfortable

3 losses. It can't get worse than this!

4 losses........This is the threshold for most. For 95% of people, 4 trade loses in a row would lead to a strong emotional attack which will in turn manifest into future problems such as fear of placing a trade, lack of faith, taking winners too early e.t.c and of course some will quit trading at this point.

KEY FORMULA

So what's the rational approach?

Lets a system with a hit rate of 70% and a favourable risk/reward of at least 1:1. By all accounts this would be deemed as a good system with top traders.

There's a simple piece of maths that will calculate just how likely you are to have a losing run, provided you know the expected success rate of your trading strategy.

Probability of 4 losses in a row = (losing rate) to the power of 4

So, if your win rate is 70%, your losing rate will be 30%.

For the sake of the calculation, we use 0.3 as the losing rate.

So (0.3)^4 = 0.0081 (which equates to 0.81%)

0.81% is your probability of getting a run of 4 losing trades.

It might not sound like a lot but it works out as almost 2 times in every 200 trades.

One of my systems /strategies - the Magnet - runs on a higher win rate at around 80% and although I have never experienced 4 loses in a row, if I did, I would be fully prepared.

If you're still struggling with this concept, then it may be that you need to reevaluate your money-management plan. If a losing run (which is a valid part of your strategy) is causing you too much pain - chances are your leverage is too high.

I want all my clients to be in the 5% so lets work together to ensure this is the case.

Beat The Price Rise: Mark's FTSE Service has almost reached the maximum number of subscribers
and so September 1st will see a 20% price rise in the service

Get the 2010 price locked in if you subscribe between now and 6th September (subscribe now and we GUARANTEE never to increase the price on you!)

(Now is a great time to be trading the FTSE. We are already over 140 pips for August and with the holiday season ending I expect even more opportunities for September!)

Here is the link to signup-

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Best regards,

Mark

My website is www.markaustintrading.com

Mark Austin Trading is now established as one of the UK's premium FTSE trading services and here's here's what one of our members has to say-

"I just wanted to give you some feedback, as often you only hear from people when they are not happy. I only joined your service 1 month ago and observed for a week as I have been using other services that seem to give me advice on how to burn my pot, I did not need there advice for this! I have to tell you that just from last Friday, Monday and Tuesday of this week you have made me 100 % of my pot, if you continue in this fashion you may even get me all my money back that other services have lost me. 

I just wanted to say your narrative in the morning is so good, it feels good to win. But it feels like I thrash the broker, I sell to your target down then go long, once I observe a bit of price action. Added with the binary's is gives me a great feeling. All of this with low leverage and no drawdown i am amazed how less stressed i am since using your service. I have recommended you to lots of people. A genuine thank you and keep up the great work."
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FTSE Service

Good morning

The service is a taking a short break and trading will resume on Tuesday.

Enjoy the bank holiday weekend.

Kind regards

Mark

The BIG MOVES occur when the market opens TIP # 7

TRADING THE OPEN, TIP 7

CLICK THIS LINK FOR TRADING TIP 7 >>

All the best,

Mark

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 25 August 2011

Following on from yesterdays analysis we have seen the break out above 5200 with the key level at 5070 continuing to hold. This current rally has either ended at 5250 or we will see one final push this morning.  I then expect lower prices back towards 5070.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 24 August 2011

We discussed yesterday the likelihood of higher prices above 5200 and towards 5300 as long as we did not see prices penetrate 5070 (The market low for August last year).  In the end the FTSE reached the magnet target but more importantly held 5070 and was a very low risk long trade for those who caught it. The market low yesterday was 5076.  

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 23 August 2011

We saw a flying start to the FTSE yesterday linked with expiry.  One thing to note is the move was backed with far lower volume than we have seen on similar sized moves to the downside.  This indicates the sellers are still firmly in control of this market. Its also typical of the last 10 days of August when the large players take a break and low volume enters the market.

Last week we had a very clear wave count however I wanted to see immediate selling at the open yesterday to conclude the move. 

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 22 August 2011

Today you will see on the attached chart that we have a clear 5 wave movement developing for this final 5th wave down. Ideally we would like to see the final 5th of the 5th complete between 4600-4800 and then a major rally to follow. I have noted we are now oversold in this market and if we were in a bull market this would be an ideal place to buy. However this is not the case and technically we are back in a bear market and price action can stay in an oversold territory for some time.  A large rally will develop after this pattern completes and prices as high as 5700 are possible. 

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 19 August 2011

Its options expiry today for the FTSE so we can expect another volatile day.

The break through 5265 has confirmed the 5th wave scenario for a move down to 4600. Only an end of day close above this level (5265) now would compromise this wave count. 

Expect the first part of this decline to end near 5000 or just under.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 18 August 2011

The FTSE is trading sideways for now between 5265 and 5381.

5381 remains a top in this market from our discussions on Monday and keeps the 5th wave analysis for a decline to 4600 in tact.  At this stage for the further downside to be seen we really need to see the market break below 5265 today.  If we hold this level again today and rise again then further immediate downside is compromised and we could see the market break above 5381.

 

 

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 17 August 2011

Lots of buying into the close last night with the FTSE spiking 40 points in the last 10 minutes and all connected to the dividend. This made for a very profitable binary trade. With the dividend at 9.5 points, the real adjusted close is 5348 so if we open above this level expect a drop to 5348 at least and then a likely drop to 5325 which is where the FTSE was trading at 4.20pm yesterday. 

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Update* - A BRAND NEW GOLD SERVICE

Dear Reader,

The GOLD SERVICE and updated subscription details can be found here-

http://www.markaustintrading.com/promo/golden-pom.html

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 16 August 2011

No real change on yesterdays analysis and we are still concentrating on the wave 4 pattern.

I mentioned yesterday, 5381 would serve as a good top for wave 4 to have completed and as long as the market does not penetrate this level during official hours (8am-4.30pm) this remains the case. Technically this wave pattern can still rise to 5500 and still be valid but I will question the validity if we penetrate 5381 to the upside.

We have a large dividend today on the FTSE standing at 9.5 points.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 15 August 2011

This morning we are again looking at the structure of wave 4. Wave 4's can be triangular or they can take on an ABC form.  Friday's action made a clear break out of the triangle (see chart) after retesting 5100 and you will see this is where the cross over lies between the triangle support and resistance levels. For now the ABC count for wave 4 fits the best and once completed we can expect to see wave 5 commence with a target of 4600.

 

Has wave 4 finished?  I am looking for evidence that the pattern has completed.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 12 August 2011

Yesterday was all about 5070 with very profitable breakouts either side. This number will serve as a useful market barometer going forward. Whilst we trade above here the bulls have the upper hand for now.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 11 August 2011

Today I have attached the wave count I sent to you on the 9th August.  You will see the 4th wave just about hit the 38.20% Fibonacci level yesterday morning at the open and we have since fallen back.  We have also broken below 5070 yesterday and closed below this level which indicates once wave 4 is complete we will see a final 5th wave down to 4600 or lower to complete this pattern.  What is not clear is whether we have completed wave 4.  I have also attached a shorter time frame chart and you will see wave 4 looks to be tracing out an ABC pattern which is correctional and would indicate some short term higher prices (as high as 5450) before we begin the final 5th wave.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 10 August 2011

I am leading on from yesterdays report today as for now the market is moving as expected with a close above 5145 leading to a further rally towards 5300 over night to fulfill yesterdays iv wave target (posted to you yesterday afternoon) and 50% of the 50 moving average gap between 4700 and 5800. We have fallen back for now.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 9 August 2011

A very active overnight session for the FTSE to say the least. In fact with the time difference over here the index was trading closer to 4700 when I woke up than the current level - 5990.

At this stage as long as the FTSE can hold 4800 the index has a chance to form a short term bottom for the latest decline however a move below this level and the FTSE could enter free fall as there is no significant support until 4000.  In terms of signs that the FTSE is bottoming, pay attention to the last hour of trading today. If buyers enter the market then the market is running out of sellers and short term sentiment is changing. Institutional traders dominate the last hour of trading and they drive the market.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 8 August 2011

The big news over the weekend has been the USA's credit rating being downgraded which has led to further selling in the futures market. We won't know the true effect this will have until the markets open and in particular the US opening this afternoon. If we look at historical data the probabilities of a major bounce from the current market are increasing. The market is also very far away from its Moving Average 50 on the daily chart and at least 50% of this distance will be recovered. If we take the current futures market low (5106) then the target is 5450.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 5 August 2011

The FTSE blew away 5475 yesterday with high volume and as a result all time frames (short, medium and long) have now turned negative.  For now we have to assume a new bear market is upon us.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 4 August 2011

We saw the FTSE moved below 5642 yesterday during official hours which now dissolves the 2011 sideways pattern and has the whole market questioning whether we have started a new bear trend.

I will re-emphasis that as long as we avoid an end of day close below 5475 the medium term market still remains in a bull market so its best to not get too caught up in all the negative sentiment drifting around until we see this.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 3 August 2011

This morning I have attached ''the bigger picture'' for the FTSE.  As you will see we have been trading sideways all year tracing out a clear ABCDE pattern.  Yesterday we took some long exposure based on the market reaching a major trend line support and also completing the wave count for wave E.

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BREAKOUTS, TIP 6 FROM MARKAUSTINTRADING.COM

BREAKOUTS, TIP 6

CLICK THIS LINK FOR TRADING TIP 6 >>

All the best,

Mark

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 2 Aug 2011

The FTSE saw a very negative reversal above the MA 200 now resting at 5883 yesterday which resulted in a negative outside day (the FTSE made a new high and new low but also closed lower when compared to the the previous day).  Certainly negative price action but how much can we read into it.  We discussed at the beginning of last week how the technicals would be compromised as a result of the debt news and also how we would most likely see many amateur traders being stopped out from wild swings and false signals.  This is what we are seeing at present. The good news is I expect the effects to subside over the next few trading sessions.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services - 1 August 2011

The FTSE will open strong today on the back of the US debt deal being announced in the early hours of this morning.  The agreement will be voted on today but the market is already pricing in a positive outcome. Whether we see  a ''buy the rumour, sell the actual new release'' scenario remains to be seen.

We did see a break of 5795 on Friday which indicated we would see a final decline towards 5700 and then a good buying opportunity but with positive news out the probabilities of this are diminishing and an end of day close above 5930 would be a bullish sign at this stage. Once the vote has agreed (hopefully today) we will be looking for a long opportunity.  

Today the Magnet stands.

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