MARK'S FTSE TRADING TIPS # 3 - SECONDARY CONFIRMATION SIGNALS

SECONDARY CONFIRMATION SIGNALS, MARK'S TRADING TIP # 3 from
MarkAustinTrading.com

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services Update - 31 May 2011

Good morning

5910 remains a key level in this market and whilst above here we can expect the market to stay very positive.  A retest at this area is very probable in the short term as we have a magnet target just before this level. Markets also have a tendency to revisit areas of importance. Once we see the reaction to this level, this could be a good opportunity to go long.

The complete FTSE Trading analysis and trading opportunities are available when you sign-up to the service through the Mark Austin Trading website.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services Update - 27 May 2011

Good morning

The magnet target at 5927 was hit last night at 7.30pm so in terms of immediate upside the FTSE has done what it needed to. The question is will we see continued positive development from this level. The answer lies with 5910 (yesterdays daily market high). As well as being the market high you will also notice on the 10 minute chart that there were 2 powerful rejections from this area that resulted in the FTSE losing 30 points in moments. When you see this sort of price action if signifies an important area (see attached chart).

Continue reading >> The complete FTSE Trading analysis and trading opportunities are available when you sign-up to the service through the Mark Austin Trading website.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services Update - 26 May 2011

Good morning

The institutional funds jumped in yesterday and bought up cheap stock near the MA 200 as we had discussed. These are longer term investors with a higher risk tolerance (they use LARGE STOPS) and they will use corrections in a bull market to their advantage. Right now we are still in a bull market until we see otherwise. Longer term subscribers will know 5477 is the level which separates the bull market from the bear market. 

 

Yesterday's price activity also revealed just how important 5820 is, with the market clearly not accepting price activity under this level right from the open at 8am.

So whats the strategy from here?

The complete FTSE Trading analysis and trading opportunities are available when you sign-up to the service through the Mark Austin Trading website.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services Update - 25 May 2011

Good morning

We discussed the importance of 5860 yesterday.  The market briefly rallied over this level and then closed the day 2 points below.  This was a short term sell signal and it was confirmation that the market did not have enough buyers to sustain daily activity over this key level of resistance.  A similar signal came just before the Japanese nuclear sell off a few months ago when the FTSE also closed just 1 point under a key support area. Its a big reason why I pay particular notice to the actual FTSE closing level.  Please note I do not use spread betting companies to obtain this information and its important you obtain the ''real'' index closing level.  There are many free sources on the internet to find this.

The complete FTSE Trading analysis and trading opportunities are available when you sign-up to the service through the Mark Austin Trading website.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services Update - 24 May 2011

Good morning

The FTSE turned short term negative yesterday with the break through 5860 (the market low from last week). One observation was that the majority of the move came in ''out of hours'' and there was not much momentum during official hours. This indicates that we are not at the beginning of a correction but in the final stages. The likely end to this correction is dependent on 5820.

The complete FTSE Trading analysis and trading opportunities are available when you sign-up to the service through the Mark Austin Trading website.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services Update - 23 May 2011

Good morning

The FTSE made a new high above 6005 on Friday on the back of 5 waves up on the 1 hour chart (see attached chart from Friday afternoon) from the recent lows at 5844.  This is impulsive action and signals the correction ended last week at 5844 and we will shortly see higher prices above 6020. However, we are trading much lower this morning and we have to ask whether Friday's events was just another false break (signal) from this market which is beginning to cost traders dearly.

The complete FTSE Trading analysis and trading opportunities are available when you sign-up to the service through the Mark Austin Trading website.

Binary tunnel trade - 19 May 2011 @ 12.11pm

I have sold the 65/65 FTSE Binary tunnel at a price 86

You can learn more about exotic binaries when you sign-up to Marks FTSE Service.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services Update - 20 May 2011

Good morning

Today is expiry for the FTSE 100 and we often see activity increase in the following week as large institutions take out new positions on the market.

The complete FTSE Trading analysis and trading opportunities are available when you sign-up to the service through the Mark Austin Trading website.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services Update - 19 May 2011

Good morning

This morning we are looking at a possible complex correction for the FTSE 100 which has created a difficult trading environment over the last 2 weeks.  One thing I will add is the FTSE has left a string of negative signals below 5880 and it is therefore likely that we will revisit at least 5860 in the near future.

We also have expiry tomorrow and we often see healthier moves come in after this event.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services Update - 18 May 2011

Good morning

The FTSE has bounced over night but this does nothing to change what we are seeing:

• The FTSE is making lower closes in a falling trend. This is negative and signals an even stronger fall.  
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• We had a negative outside day yesterday which means we made a new high and a new low when compared to the previous day and closed lower. We also closed on the low of the day at 5861.
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• We have closed under 5880 and below a short term falling channel. Sell signal
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• We have expiry in 2 days.

As a trader I look at the evidence and weigh up the probabilities. At present the odds are stacked in favour of further selling towards my target at 5888.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Service Update - 17 May 2011

Good morning

Last week's trading range broke to the downside yesterday at 5880 but we failed to see the crucial close below 5880 (sell signal). We use the close (4.30pm) to filter out false breaks and I would imagine quite a few traders went short yesterday at 5880 only to get stopped out on the late afternoon rally. This is known as a ''short squeeze''.

In the absence of a close below 5880 and a failure to make fresh lows we remain patient until this market finally provides a clear signal.   One thing I will add is its Tuesday today and this day has a tendency to be bullish when the overall trend is up.  So today's action may give us a  clue as to whether this recent range bound activity is mearly a flat correction or indeed we are going to see a sharp sell off.

To learn more about the key levels and access Mark's daily analysis you can signup through this link.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 16 May 2011

Good morning

After a week of consolidation for the FTSE, the weekly chart has left an ''inside bar''. This means the FTSE traded within the previous weeks range.  When you see an inside bar during a period when volatility is picking up you can expect the following week to break a trading range and also a large move to come in. This would also tie in with expiry this Friday.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 13 May 2011

Good morning

The week of consolidation continues and we remain in a horizontal channel with no real clear direction. We did manage to close the day just above the 50 day moving average (at 5940) so that is one saving grace to the bulls.  

If the market breaks 5930 today then we could well see the all important 5855 level broken.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 12 May 2011

Good morning

We talked on Monday about the negative outside week which was created last Friday and also the powerful rally that came in on the same day after holding a major bullish trend line at 5855. These are conflicting signals and will result in a pause in the market as traders become more cautious after a long spell of buying.  My forecast on Monday was a week of consolidation between...

 

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 11 May 2011

Good morning

The FTSE is currently trading at 6035 out of hours and this is near the top of the consolidation range.  If we see acceptance above 6050 (3 thirty minute candle bars) the FTSE will be on course to making new highs above 6106 and towards 6300.

However if the FTSE fails to capture prices above 6050 and instead makes an established break below 6000 again the index will most likely target an unfilled price gap at 5912 (see chart).  So in summary the 6000-6050 range is very important today.

The daily high yesterday was 6024 however the FTSE had a dividend of 12p so we can reduce the gap target to 6012.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 10 May 2011

Good morning

As mentioned yesterday the FTSE has started the week in consolidation mode which is not that surprising given that we are in May, historically a ''sluggish'' month for the stock market.  

Given the failed retest at 6000 yesterday I am at this stage inclined to move any stops for longer term ''long'' positions to an end of day close below 5900.  We are still in an over all up trend so buying this market is still preferable however I remain slightly cautious until I see acceptance over 6050 again.

Its also worth noting the FTSE will report one of the biggest dividends of the year today, standing at 12 points, so if we are to see this index act like its still in a bull market it will be today.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 9 May 2011

Good morning

We held a major support level at 5855 on Friday which keeps the major trend bullish however we were unable to avoid a negative outside week as the FTSE closed under 6000 (a negative signal).  This will create uncertainly in the market for traders and I therefore expect a week of consolidation between 5900 and 6050 until the next major move is confirmed. A negative outside week is when the FTSE makes a new high and new low when compared to the previous week and also closes below the previous week's low.

Today's trade set up

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 6 May 2011

Good morning

A key day today both in terms of technical levels and news releases.

If the bulls want to regain control in this market they really need to avoid a close below 6000 today otherwise a negative ''outside week'' will appear on the charts which I mentioned yesterday.

To understand where the stop loss is for bulls you can sign up to the full daily analysis here.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 5 May 2011

Good morning

The FTSE closed under 6000 last night and under the daily moving average 20 and this is a short term negative signal. However, I will point out that this particular signal has created a bear trap on several previous occasions since we started rallying last year so I would prefer to see one more close below 6000 to read too much into this.  

Likewise I am not placing positional (medium term trade set ups) long trades just yet for several important reasons.

To access the full analysis and Mark's trading recommendations you can sign up through this link here.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 4 May 2011

Good morning

On the attached chart you will note we are currently (6030) resting at support on the daily chart, the MA 20 and also the 38.20 retracement level.  We are treating this move down as a correction and if we had not failed to make new highs yesterday above 6106 (failed retest) this could be viewed as a good place to position long.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 3 May 2011

Good morning

After 4 days closed the FTSE will open for the first trading day of a new month. Traditionally bullish days with funds committing new monies.  

The FTSE has now made new highs above 6106 on 2 occasions but out of hours. We have yet to see the index make a new high above 6106 during official cash hours (8am-4.30pm).  A daily close above 6106 will be a ''triple top'' break out and this will support positioning long on the next pull back with stops at 5840.  Ideally any pull back will be just under the Moving Average 20 which is positioned at 5970 on the weekly chart.