We finished Friday's session with the FTSE producing a negative outside week. A new high was made and the index closed lower than the previous week. This is usually a strong sell signal however there are few other price action factors to bear in mind :
1) The index has already tested its lower trend line and major support at 5870 (and bounced on strong volume)
2) We filled a previous closing gap just under 5860
3) We closed Friday's session back over the 50 day day moving average and 6000
4) We are still in a bull market
Taking these points into account we have a sell signal but it is very weak. We cannot conclude a top has been formed until we see an end of day close below 5820.
In the very short term whilst we await patiently for a clear trend to develop (for longer term trades) we will have to contend with sideways action.
When I met Mark I was enormously impressed with his FTSE trading abilities, so much so that I decided to recommend him to my clients. John Piper
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Monday, February 28, 2011
Friday, February 25, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 25 Feb 2011
Good morning
With the FTSE making a new high this week and falling away sharply the index will create a negative sell signal on the weekly charts if we close today's session under 6023. For cautious positional traders this should be the sell signal to look out for.
We have major GDP news out in the US today at 1.30pm so we could have a volatile session on our hands.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 24 Feb 2011
Good morning
We closed under the 50 moving day average yesterday and under a break out support level at 5970. This indicates continued weakness for the FTSE 100.
We are currently resting on the weekly chart trend line so its possible we could have a brief reaction to the upside but I expect an established break of 5900 shortly. Target 5840.
Resistance for any counter trend rallies lies at 5950. A good shorting opportunity.
Major support lies at 5820. If we penetrate this level we can confirm 6105 is a medium term top in the market and we will most likely test the MA 200 at 5670. A common occurrence for corrections in bull markets.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 23 Feb 2011
Good morning
A volatile day for the FTSE yesterday with key support (5970) being broken to the downside but buyers erased most of this activity in the afternoon. The VIX (a measure of volatility) was off the scale.
We failed to close the day under key support at 5970. A close below this level would have been very bearish. As we are still in a bull market under usual circumstances I would most likely be treating yesterday's sharp move down as no more than a bear trap to shake out too many traders long in this market.
A volatile day for the FTSE yesterday with key support (5970) being broken to the downside but buyers erased most of this activity in the afternoon. The VIX (a measure of volatility) was off the scale.
We failed to close the day under key support at 5970. A close below this level would have been very bearish. As we are still in a bull market under usual circumstances I would most likely be treating yesterday's sharp move down as no more than a bear trap to shake out too many traders long in this market.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 22 Feb 2011
Good morning
We had the negative outside day yesterday which has created sell pressure under 6000. As mentioned yesterday we also had a close under 6020 (support) , a false break above 6100 and this is all timed around options expiry which as we discussed last week are often pivotal events.
However until we have a break below 5970 (during market hours) we cannot jump the gun. A move below this figure will open up 5900 quickly. We are close now (current market 5978) but I need to see this during cash hours to confirm the trend has turned down.
We had the negative outside day yesterday which has created sell pressure under 6000. As mentioned yesterday we also had a close under 6020 (support) , a false break above 6100 and this is all timed around options expiry which as we discussed last week are often pivotal events.
However until we have a break below 5970 (during market hours) we cannot jump the gun. A move below this figure will open up 5900 quickly. We are close now (current market 5978) but I need to see this during cash hours to confirm the trend has turned down.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Service Update - 21 Feb 2011
Good morning
The FTSE closed last week on a positive note. After an initial sell off in the morning session, buyers came in late afternoon and prices closed higher than the previous week. When a market is tiring and sellers are becoming dominant traders are unwilling to hold positions over the weekend. This is not the case at present and calls for higher prices. The stop for all bulls remains a close below 5980. Until we see price action close below this level we can expect higher prices in the short term.
With US markets closed for Presidents day expect a very quite session this afternoon.
The FTSE closed last week on a positive note. After an initial sell off in the morning session, buyers came in late afternoon and prices closed higher than the previous week. When a market is tiring and sellers are becoming dominant traders are unwilling to hold positions over the weekend. This is not the case at present and calls for higher prices. The stop for all bulls remains a close below 5980. Until we see price action close below this level we can expect higher prices in the short term.
With US markets closed for Presidents day expect a very quite session this afternoon.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 18 Feb 2011
Good morning
Its options expiry today and the activity after this event can be pivotal. With the FTSE trading in a tight range for most of this week I expect a large move either today or early next week.
Expiry takes place just after 10am.
For the bulls a weekly close above 6100 is what they are looking for. The clear stop for them is a close below the 20 day moving average at 5980.
Its options expiry today and the activity after this event can be pivotal. With the FTSE trading in a tight range for most of this week I expect a large move either today or early next week.
Expiry takes place just after 10am.
For the bulls a weekly close above 6100 is what they are looking for. The clear stop for them is a close below the 20 day moving average at 5980.
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