Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services Update - 19 May 2011

Good morning

This morning we are looking at a possible complex correction for the FTSE 100 which has created a difficult trading environment over the last 2 weeks.  One thing I will add is the FTSE has left a string of negative signals below 5880 and it is therefore likely that we will revisit at least 5860 in the near future.

We also have expiry tomorrow and we often see healthier moves come in after this event.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Services Update - 18 May 2011

Good morning

The FTSE has bounced over night but this does nothing to change what we are seeing:

• The FTSE is making lower closes in a falling trend. This is negative and signals an even stronger fall.  
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• We had a negative outside day yesterday which means we made a new high and a new low when compared to the previous day and closed lower. We also closed on the low of the day at 5861.
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• We have closed under 5880 and below a short term falling channel. Sell signal
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• We have expiry in 2 days.

As a trader I look at the evidence and weigh up the probabilities. At present the odds are stacked in favour of further selling towards my target at 5888.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Service Update - 17 May 2011

Good morning

Last week's trading range broke to the downside yesterday at 5880 but we failed to see the crucial close below 5880 (sell signal). We use the close (4.30pm) to filter out false breaks and I would imagine quite a few traders went short yesterday at 5880 only to get stopped out on the late afternoon rally. This is known as a ''short squeeze''.

In the absence of a close below 5880 and a failure to make fresh lows we remain patient until this market finally provides a clear signal.   One thing I will add is its Tuesday today and this day has a tendency to be bullish when the overall trend is up.  So today's action may give us a  clue as to whether this recent range bound activity is mearly a flat correction or indeed we are going to see a sharp sell off.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 16 May 2011

Good morning

After a week of consolidation for the FTSE, the weekly chart has left an ''inside bar''. This means the FTSE traded within the previous weeks range.  When you see an inside bar during a period when volatility is picking up you can expect the following week to break a trading range and also a large move to come in. This would also tie in with expiry this Friday.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 13 May 2011

Good morning

The week of consolidation continues and we remain in a horizontal channel with no real clear direction. We did manage to close the day just above the 50 day moving average (at 5940) so that is one saving grace to the bulls.  

If the market breaks 5930 today then we could well see the all important 5855 level broken.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 12 May 2011

Good morning

We talked on Monday about the negative outside week which was created last Friday and also the powerful rally that came in on the same day after holding a major bullish trend line at 5855. These are conflicting signals and will result in a pause in the market as traders become more cautious after a long spell of buying.  My forecast on Monday was a week of consolidation between...

 

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