Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 11 May 2011

Good morning

The FTSE is currently trading at 6035 out of hours and this is near the top of the consolidation range.  If we see acceptance above 6050 (3 thirty minute candle bars) the FTSE will be on course to making new highs above 6106 and towards 6300.

However if the FTSE fails to capture prices above 6050 and instead makes an established break below 6000 again the index will most likely target an unfilled price gap at 5912 (see chart).  So in summary the 6000-6050 range is very important today.

The daily high yesterday was 6024 however the FTSE had a dividend of 12p so we can reduce the gap target to 6012.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 10 May 2011

Good morning

As mentioned yesterday the FTSE has started the week in consolidation mode which is not that surprising given that we are in May, historically a ''sluggish'' month for the stock market.  

Given the failed retest at 6000 yesterday I am at this stage inclined to move any stops for longer term ''long'' positions to an end of day close below 5900.  We are still in an over all up trend so buying this market is still preferable however I remain slightly cautious until I see acceptance over 6050 again.

Its also worth noting the FTSE will report one of the biggest dividends of the year today, standing at 12 points, so if we are to see this index act like its still in a bull market it will be today.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 9 May 2011

Good morning

We held a major support level at 5855 on Friday which keeps the major trend bullish however we were unable to avoid a negative outside week as the FTSE closed under 6000 (a negative signal).  This will create uncertainly in the market for traders and I therefore expect a week of consolidation between 5900 and 6050 until the next major move is confirmed. A negative outside week is when the FTSE makes a new high and new low when compared to the previous week and also closes below the previous week's low.

Today's trade set up

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 6 May 2011

Good morning

A key day today both in terms of technical levels and news releases.

If the bulls want to regain control in this market they really need to avoid a close below 6000 today otherwise a negative ''outside week'' will appear on the charts which I mentioned yesterday.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 5 May 2011

Good morning

The FTSE closed under 6000 last night and under the daily moving average 20 and this is a short term negative signal. However, I will point out that this particular signal has created a bear trap on several previous occasions since we started rallying last year so I would prefer to see one more close below 6000 to read too much into this.  

Likewise I am not placing positional (medium term trade set ups) long trades just yet for several important reasons.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 4 May 2011

Good morning

On the attached chart you will note we are currently (6030) resting at support on the daily chart, the MA 20 and also the 38.20 retracement level.  We are treating this move down as a correction and if we had not failed to make new highs yesterday above 6106 (failed retest) this could be viewed as a good place to position long.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 3 May 2011

Good morning

After 4 days closed the FTSE will open for the first trading day of a new month. Traditionally bullish days with funds committing new monies.  

The FTSE has now made new highs above 6106 on 2 occasions but out of hours. We have yet to see the index make a new high above 6106 during official cash hours (8am-4.30pm).  A daily close above 6106 will be a ''triple top'' break out and this will support positioning long on the next pull back with stops at 5840.  Ideally any pull back will be just under the Moving Average 20 which is positioned at 5970 on the weekly chart.