Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 28 April 2011

Good morning

As expected the break of 6070 yesterday has subsequently led to new highs above 6106 on the futures chart and we are now entering a very important area for the markets both on the FTSE and other global markets. I would therefore like to briefly look at the ''bigger'' picture of what we can expect on a longer term basis.

Attached is a chart dating back to 1985.  If the analysis is correct we can expect a major peak to occur around the 6700 mark before a major decline occurs to levels sub 4000.

However, in order to achieve this the following factors need to be adhered-

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 27 April 2011

Good morning

As per yesterday's report the FTSE is flirting with the upper parameter at 6070 and we have already seen a market close above 6050 so a clear break of 6070 today should lead to higher prices above 6100.  If the market is to reject this level (6055-6070) once more the FTSE would need to sell off immediately at the open (8am).

Support now lies at 6050 and the market stays positive above here.

We still have the gap at 5922 but the market will only target this on a move below 6030.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 26 April 2011

Good morning

The key areas on the FTSE right now are 6055 and 5900.

On the attached chart you will notice the break out from 5900 at the beginning of April. Last weeks correction below this level can be counted as a bear trap for now however if we do see an end of day close below this level once again, expect the market to test 5700 rapidly.  

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 21 April 2011

Good morning

After a strong rally yesterday FTSE futures are hovering close to 6055 today. As you will remember minus development at this level 10 days ago was a key factor which prompted us to position short for 5850. If the FTSE can hold this level this morning then new highs are imminent above 6106 and we will position long on a subsequent pull back.

Failure to hold this level is once again negative. 

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 20 April 2011

Good morning

The FTSE will open strong today on the back of positive earnings from Intel which resulted in the markets gapping up just after the US close.

The market high yesterday was 5922 and this will be retested in the next few days.

With the inside trading day yesterday its possible the recent correction ended.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 19 April 2011

Good morning

The FTSE corrected yesterday to just shy of our 5850 target.  Its possible we have one more leg down towards 5800 to complete this pattern however this is not a prerequisite.

We are in still in a bull market but I will not consider positioning long now (medium term) until we have seen an end of day close above 5955 and the strategy will now switch to shorter term sets ups whilst we await the next clear swing trade.  

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 18 April 2011

Good morning

The FTSE remains negative whilst acceptance above 6000 is avoided.  The first 2 parts of the correction are over and we are awaiting for the final stage to develop.  

A break below 5960 will confirm this short correction will indeed reach lower prices.

Its also worth noting we have a short term negative signal form last week's price action in the form of a negative outside week. The FTSE made a new high for week at 6070 but closed lower than the previous week.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 15 April 2011

Good morning

I am holding my seminar in Dorking today so the usual service will resume on Monday. http://www.markaustintrading.com/seminars.html

The FTSE is currently correcting based on our analysis from last week and so far the market action is correctional. We had discussed the magnet target at 6042 on Tuesday and the possibility of the FTSE reaching this before we fell. The sharp move towards this level on Wednesday fits with our overall analysis.

We have expiry today so we could see a solid move come in after lunch.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 13 April 2011

Good morning

We are currently short the FTSE with a target of 5850.

The first part of the decline started yesterday and we should see lower prices towards the end of the week with expiry coming into play on Friday.

For spread bets we do not want to see prices return to the highs at 6070. If we see this the analysis is compromised.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 12 April 2011

Good morning

Our medium term analysis remains the same calling for a decline to 5720.

Yesterday's close for the market was negative as the FTSE closed just under 6055.  This is negative as the FTSE made a new high for the day but then closed under this major support level at 6053. As we know 6055 has been a key focal point for the last 2 weeks and regularly mentioned.

On the short term analysis we have just filled a previous closing gap at 6007 and for continued selling we need the market to break 5990 where the 10 day moving average currently lies.  If the market moves below 5990 we can conclude a short term top is in place.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 11 April 2011

Good morning

Quiet activity continues over global markets and the FTSE looks to be opening in familiar territory.

The bulls are certainly resilient at present and continue to buy any dips on the back of negative news. 

Our current analysis continues to call for a short term correction to 5720 but the price action is not supporting this view at present.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 8 April 2011

Good morning

The FTSE continues to consolidate above 6000 in a very quiet week for markets.

We continue to see minus development at 6055 and the overall analysis remains the same.

With futures trading close to 6055 (pre open) the reaction at the open may pave the way for the day.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 6 April 2011

Good morning

Yesterday was another day of flat trading across major global markets. As the FTSE is set to open in the same position my overall analysis remains the same.

One thing I will add is we saw an inside day yesterday which means prices remained within the previous day's range.  This often signals a reversal and strengthens our analysis that we will see a correctional decline towards 5720 before we make new highs above 6106. 

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 5 April 2011

Good morning

Strong resistance lies at 6055 and this should prompt a negative reaction.  The top of the channel also fits well for a failed double top scenario.

For now with the price action above 6000 we may see continued strength towards 6055-6090 before the decline starts.

A move above 6120 invalides this analysis and the impending decline to 5720.

If the longer term trend was down I would be jumping into this move however as the trend is up we will have to be patient and wait for price action to offer a complimentary signal.

Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 4 April 2011

Good morning

A very positive close to the week on Friday with the FTSE closing above 6000.  

As I mentioned on Friday the 1st of the month is when funds commit large cash amounts. If the general view is that a floor is in place at 5600 fund managers will be keen to invest and not miss the next leg up for this bull run.

With the trend up we want to positioning long for medium term trades. In the short term amateur traders will be using a close above 6000 as a reason to enter the stock market this week so we may see a decent correction very shortly.  This is also confirmed with the fact that we are at the top of a horizontal trend channel that is running between 5598 and 6055.

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Mark Austin FTSE Trading Update - 1 April 2011

Good morning

Yesterday's last minute flurry of selling provided the retest at 5900 but also gave 2 negative signals:

1. Negative outside day. The FTSE made a new high and closed on a new low when compared to the previous trading day.

2. A close under the 50 day moving average at 5935.

If we see acceptance under 5900 again that will provide a sell signal. 

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